Betting on our Future
Welcome back, motherfuckers! Did you miss me? While y’all have been busy bitching about the cost of groceries and then somehow re-electing the single greatest threat to American democracy just because you thought he might lower egg prices (yeah- how’s that omelet tasting now, bitches?), I’ve been pouring away indoctrinating your children with liberal, quasi-commie propaganda. But summer’s here, and you know what that means- the triumphant return of TRUTH: In 1000 Words or Less.
Now, those of you who know me well probably presumed that I would make my return with a treatise on the current state of politics, given that we are in the midst of a deeply disconcerting geopolitical meltdown. But I’m going to save that for another day. No, my topic for today is the increasingly popular propagation of prediction markets. For those of you who have no idea what I am talking about, prediction markets are websites that allow you to “invest” in the probability of any of a certain set of real world events occurring, with money coming in on everything from whether or not Trump would drink water during his State of the Union address (he did not) to whether or not the US government would confirm the existence of aliens sometime during 2026 (that one is still up in the air). While popular prediction market sites such as Kalshi and Polymarket would have us believe that this is not really wagering but rather an opportunity to speculate in the stake of our global future, the reality is that prediction markets are nothing more than high-stakes gambling taken to a brazenly dangerous new level, raising concerns that it might well be our own futures hanging in the balance.
For the purposes of this piece, I am going to set aside the obvious moral concerns involved here as people wager on truly horrific premises such as global conflicts or when certain notable figures might meet their Earthly demise. If you need me to tell you you how shitty you are for profiting on the tragic misfortune of others, you already have a one-way ticket straight to Hell and have given up any fleeting hope for redemption many years ago. Instead, what I want to focus on is the highly corrupt nature of wagering on certain predetermined outcomes and how to establish the guardrails necessary to maintain some sense of credibility in the Wild West world of prediction markets.
I am also going to set aside any posturing about the rise of online betting in general. While I have shared my reservations about the personal and economic impact of the proliferation of sports gambling in past columns, that particular genie is well outside the bottle. Sports gambling involves two understanding parties forming a consensual wager on a yet to be determined outcome, each, in theory, sharing equal access to the same background information. That is the very nature of gambling. But when one of the wagering parties already knows what the outcome will be, they call that something else entirely, and it sure as hell ain’t fair play.
Take, for example, the recent 60 Minutes expose of insider trading in relation to US military operations. Nine connected but purely anonymous Polymarket accounts raked in $2.4 million in wagers on the Iran War that hit with a 98% accuracy rate that even made Wilt Chamberlain bat an eye or two. Hmmmm….I’m no conspiracy theorist, but even I can recognize the smell of organic horse manure. Either Pete Hegseth has been drunk-texting military secrets again like a woebegone ex with a heavy case of break-up remorse or key Trump administration officials are profiting off their inside information of military operations. That’s right- these lecherous fiends are pocketing Benjamins off the death of innocent civilians. That’s the kind of shameless greed and corruption that would even make Josef Stalin turn an embarrassing shade of crimson. But don’t worry- Polymarket doesn’t lose a dime on these transactions because, unlike Vegas and other traditional gambling institutions, prediction markets set bettors against other bettors so that they always come out on top.
Which is exactly why we need to establish basic guardrails to protect against exactly the type of graft and corruption prediction markets are currently rife with. The first guardrail comes in the form banning wagering of any kind on outcomes that have already been determined at the time that the wager is placed. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) already has the authority to block event-based prediction contracts that are deemed contrary to the public interest, which includes contracts related to war, terrorism, and assassination. But given the proliferation of wagering on outcomes like what a person will say on a given television show or awards that have already been voted on, it is becoming increasingly clear that prediction market wagering has already begun to influence outcomes rather than the other way around. Moreover, allowing people to bet unwittingly on predetermined outcomes opens the floodgates of insider trading in a manner hitherto unknown as people who know what the outcome will be essentially steal money from people who fail to recognize that they are entering into an already losing venture.
The second safeguard that needs to be regulated and implemented is a system of identification for tracking those who use insider information in placing their wagers. Because Polymarket and Kalshi allow for untraceable, anonymous accounts, unscrupulous actors are able to scam their way to untold fortunes, all on the backs of honest, well-meaning wagerers. We need to rein in that fraud and corruption and hold bad actors accountable for their malfeasance.
But don’t hold your breath waiting for the CFTC to raise up its game in enforcing already existing regulations or for the current administration to push for laws to curb the current abuses. This is, after all, the Trump crime family we’re talking about. Would you like to guess who sits as a “paid advisor” to both Polymarket and Kalshi? I’ll give you a hint- his name rhymes with “dump” and ends with Junior. Yes, when it comes to graft and corruption, the United States has never seen the equal of our current administration. They haven’t drained the swamp; they ARE the swamp. And THAT is something you can bet on.
Steven Craig is the author of the best-selling novel WAITING FOR TODAY, as well as numerous published poems, short stories, and dramatic works. Read his blog TRUTH: in 1000 Words or Less every THURSDAY at www.waitingfortoday.com
