The 2024 Election May Look Better Than It Seems
Just the other day a friend of mine asked me what I thought Trump’s chances were of winning the presidency later this year if he is not criminally convicted of charges prior to the election. First, I had to remind them that I completely blew the 2016 election call when I proceeded to dance on Trump’s campaign grave after the “Grab them by the pussy” video came out. So maybe I’m not exactly the best person to ask here, but I put his odds at 40% absent a criminal conviction (numerous polls show that any criminal conviction would doom Trump’s chances in the general election). Stunned, they asked me how I could put the number so low when Biden clearly has so much baggage going into November. I mean, inflation and immigration seem to be at the top of many voters’ lists these days, and those are exactly the Albatros issues that Republicans want to hang around Biden’s neck. And let’s not forget about that whole age thing Biden has going on. Recently, he seems like he just woke up from a weeks-long ether bender. But don’t despair, my little chickadees. Democrats have developed some strong momentum the past couple weeks, and I am beginning to become just a bit more optimistic about still living in this country after November.
Let’s first start with the premise that Biden won the presidency by 7 million votes in the popular election and 74 votes in the electoral college that for some reason are the only ones that count. That means that in the steel-caged death re-match that we are all eagerly anticipating, Trump would need to swing over at least 3 states he lost in 2020 without losing any in the other direction. While polling does seem to favour the bloviating warthog at this point, do you really think that Trump has flipped considerable numbers of votes during the past four years where he has started an insurrection, been ordered to pay $83 million in restitution to Jean Carroll for sexually assaulting her and then defaming her publicly, been liable for over $300 million in damages for defrauding the tax payers of New York, and found himself the subject of four separate criminal indictments? I know the past four years have been a little rocky, but who saw through Trump’s bullshit in 2020 only to suddenly think now that the guy might still be fit for President in 2024?
So Trump is already playing from behind, so to speak. And unfortunately for him, the past couple of weeks have played right into Democrats’ hands come November. The first issue comes in the form of immigration. Republicans felt like this was their ace card heading into November, but they just got outplayed by Chuck Schumer. Following the lead of their puppet master, Donald Trump, House Republicans killed the very immigration bill they had been demanding for weeks, in fear that they might give Biden a victory lap on the one issue that voters say is at the head of their lists heading into November. Underestimating the savvy of the voting public, House Republicans thought voters would unwittingly blame Biden for the failure to get anything done before the election. But it turns out that many Americans were clever enough to see through the manure that Republicans were shovelling into their faces. While 49% of respondents to an ABC News/Ipsos study earlier this month still somehow found fault with Biden for the immigration bill collapse, a majority (53%) put the blame squarely on House Republicans. With inflation down to 3.1% in February and the rest of the economy soaring in terms of every metric from historically-low unemployment to record-high stock market evaluations, Republicans are watching the two issues they had going for them, immigration and inflation, slowly slipping from their grasps.
But the real issue that could determine the 2024 Presidential election is the same one that has been dominating elections since the Dobbs decision deprived women of their constitutional right to bodily autonomy in 2022. Every mid-term election since then has been a harbinger of the feminine wrath awaiting Republicans for overturning women’s right to an abortion. Even states as conservative as Kansas have demonstrated how deeply unpopular this stance is with the general public, and it is clear that Republican candidates have been paying a price at the polls.
The backlash Republicans were already going to feel for their role in overturning abortion rights will only be amplified by the recent Alabama Supreme Court ruling that endangers the availability of In Vitro Fertilization (IVF). Yes, seems like many Republicans in backwards ass Southern states have a hard time reading the writing on the wall as they double down on more and more draconian efforts to restrict women’s bodily autonomy. With 14 states now enforcing total bans with limited exceptions, and some even going so far as to criminalise women who leave the state to have the procedure done elsewhere (thank you, Texas), Alabama decided to take their unwanted jurisdiction over women’s bodily freedoms one step further. By declaring embryos to be actual human beings, they have jeopardised the very processes of In Vitro Fertilisation which helps thousands of families each year conceive children that they otherwise could not. IVF requires the harvesting of embryos in a lab, only some of which are implanted for conception. By suggesting that the removal of these unused embryos now somehow constitutes murder means that fertility doctors can no longer perform IVF without the potential of facing criminal prosecution. In other words, not only do Republicans want the government to start meddling in when families can choose to end a pregnancy, now they want to tell them when they can start one too.
But has Trump backed off his abortion stance despite its wildly unpopular outcomes? Of course he hasn’t. That tone-deaf old fool has been on the campaign trail bragging about how much he has done to “protect the unborn”. Sure, when he speaks to a crowd of Bible-thumping conservatives, they cheer him on, but outside of that bubble of latent misogyny, many women see Dobbs for exactly what it is: an impingement on their personal freedoms. And in case you haven’t heard, people don’t like it when you take away their constitutional rights.
So yeah, put my money down on Biden pulling out a tight one come November. No one is going to do so enthusiastically, but when push comes to shove, I still think that more Americans will vote for Biden than Trump. Assuming, of course, that he is still alive by then.
Steven Craig is the author of the best-selling novel WAITING FOR TODAY, as well as numerous published poems, short stories, and dramatic works. Read his blog TRUTH: In 1000 Words or Less every THURSDAY at www.waitingfortoday.com
